Amy Webb’s fantastical (or is it crazy?) media future – Knight Foundation
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Amy Webb’s fantastical (or is it crazy?) media future

Digital futurist Amy Webb at the 2015 Media Learning Seminar in Miami. Photo by Patrick Farrell. 

When digital media futurist Amy Webb gives a presentation on what’s about to impact the media world, the audience often is split: Some folks are inspired by the possibilities of technologies disrupting our lives, while others don’t want to bother with them.

Webb opened her talk Monday at Knight’s Media Learning Seminar acknowledging that common reaction – and proceeded to make her point: She demonstrated Crystal, a new web app that predicts personality traits based on a person’s web footprint. Some in the audience squirmed.

Perhaps they aren’t for everyone, but then many of Webb’s tech trends to watch are already impacting the way we consume information. Amy Webb at 2015 Media Learning Seminar. 

Among the most important tech trends to watch for media orgs and foundations, according to Webb:

(1) Individual attention

We might describe this trend as the move from mass media to digital-age individual news and information. It’s far removed from one edition of a newspaper printed and distributed to 100,000 people. What Webb sees is digital news and information that becomes customized for each, individual consumer. Accurately personalized content should have more impact than impersonal communication aimed at a large crowd.

Crystal, that app just mentioned, is an example of personalization, with its algorithm that zeroes in how to best communicate with any individual based on their personality, down to whether one should use data or emotion with a person to make a point. It can even auto-edit a message written by you to another person, reflecting that person’s communication style and preferences. It’s easy to imagine the value of such a service to foundations in the audiences who need to communicate with potential donors. But also consider this type of content customization for communicating with all of your organization’s constituencies in the future.

(2) Mobile data in support of attention

Next, think about combining that type of technology with mobile data. Essentially, what can be done is producing a single news story that is then customized into hundreds or thousands of versions targeted at individuals, , said Webb.

Think of a personalized version of news delivered to an individual based on where that person is and what they’re doing. If, for example, a news consumer is on public transit and in the core downtown area (as determined by mobile data), algorithmically tweaked news would be delivered to their mobile phone in an appropriate form – say,  a succinct bullet-point text news story or a short, mobile-friendly video version of a story. If the person is at home and using an iPad, the form becomes different (longer form); and the news offerings presented also might include local stories relevant mainly to those living in their neighborhood.

What sounds like science fiction is possible already because data about an individual’s activities in the moment exist and likely will become available for such targeting from a mobile device. Webb says this model for delivering news and context on a per-person basis will be especially important in reaching millennials, since so many of them rely heavily on their mobile devices and eschew traditional media.

(3) Ambient interfaces

The concept of ambient interfaces already exists, most notably in the Google Now service for Android and iOS devices. Ambient in the news/information context, Webb explained, means that processes are working in the background to provide the individual with content and services before being asked. Webb used the example of traveling to Norway: When she arrived, Google Now alerted her to the local weather (of course) and trip-relevant calendar items as well as more surprising offerings, such as instructions for saying common phrases in Norwegian — all without Webb requesting anything.

Google is using mobile data to determine where you are at any time, then presenting contextual content and data pulled from real-time databases based in part on what it knows about you. (The company has partnered with dozens of information providers for Google Now.) In other words, Google Now is a personal digital assistant that auto-completes information tasks that it determines you might want. Webb said this will be a huge area of advancement and growth in the future, and represents a way that organizations might (automatically) grab an individual’s’ attention.

Google’s “personal information layer” for each of its users is “like a butler that’s always there,” Webb explained, watching what you do and automating information tasks that are done for you in the background. A related model is when background tasks are done to augment what you’re doing with a digital device. For example, when texting with a friend about plans to get a pizza delivered to share, an ambient/background service might order it based on the text conversation – without being commanded directly to do so.

(4) FOGO and FOMO

“Fear of going out” and “fear of missing out” are recent trends worth pondering. These phrases mean that some people fear being away from a digital device because they might miss an ephemeral digital experience, such as an interactive live-stream video from a friend using new mobile apps like Periscope or Meerkat. Such content implies to a mobile user, “If I don’t watch this, it will be gone forever,” Webb said. Meerkat video streams can be seen only live; Periscope video streams are archived, but only viewable by the public for 24 hours.

Webb views this short-lived content as a “vastly different kind of video.” News organizations and others have been experimenting with both apps, and Webb believes that they offer media outlets powerful opportunities, as well as potential problems. On the plus side, viewing these live mobile videos is “almost an addictive experience,” in part because the sensation is of having an intimate connection with the video streamer, she said. Problem areas include the challenge of curbing inappropriate content, confirming the veracity of a live video and figuring out how to turn ephemeral video into a revenue producer.

Is taking advantage of “FOMO” with this form of news and information content a way to draw people into news? Webb asked.

(5) One-to-few

This new flavor of live mobile video likely will have smaller audiences than mass-market media organizations are accustomed to, but that’s OK. Indeed, small-audience, highly-targeted content is another trend identified by Webb.

Bringing a new service “to scale” does not necessarily equal high impact, she said. News and information services that can be described as “one-to-few” often offer deeper engagement by users and higher impact. This trend can be seen in a resurgence of digital newsletters aimed at small audiences but big engagement. See Today In Tabs, using the TinyLetter platform, for an example.

(For more of Amy Webb’s wisdom and trend analysis, check out her company’s 2015 Trend Report.)

Steve Outing is a writer and digital media consultant.